Russia moving toward oppressive stagnation
Russian authorities don’t like publicity about public dissatisfaction arising from the economic recession. On 29 December, agents from the department in charge of fighting terrorism and extremism arrested opposition politician Alexandr Bragin for reporting the news.
His offense: publishing an article about the effects of the country’s sharp economic downturn on Ulyanovsk, a Volga city some 900 kilometers east of Moscow.
Bragin’s article was posted on December 29 on the website of the Russian Popular Democratic Union, an opposition party led by former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, whose regional Ulyanovsk branch is headed by Bragin.
Yelena Dikun, a Kasyanov aide, told RFE/RL’s Russian Service that law enforcement agencies are accusing Bragin of tarnishing the region’s image.
Ms Dikun also says the party has “no intention” of acceding to the Interior Ministry’s demand that the article be taken down. None of the facts in the article has been disputed, let alone refuted. Mr Bragin is being punished for telling the truth about the effects of the recession.
Another sign that Russian authorities are intent on turning back to the back old days of authoritarian rule: In the final hours of 2008, President Dmitry Medvedev quietly signed a law eliminating jury trials for defendants charged with crimes against the state.
The law does away with jury trials for a variety of offenses, leaving people accused of treason, revolt, sabotage, espionage or terrorism at the mercy of three judges rather than a panel of peers. Critics say the law is dangerous because judges in Russia are vulnerable to manipulation and intimidation by the government.
Josh Calder, writing for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, lists many reasons why Russia’s future does not look as rosy as it has in the recent past. Perhaps the most important factor is demography.
Finally, what is the real greatest threat to Russia? The country is losing nearly 1 million people a year as death rates exceed birthrates by a wide margin. No foreign power is likely to do Russia as much harm as its dire demographic decline.
Russians — especially men — are dying at younger and younger ages of heart disease and other complications of drinking and smoking, as well as of diseases like tuberculosis that have been virtually eradicated in the West. Economically strapped young people are having few or no children.
A nation with an aging and shrinking population cannot remain a powerful nation. Russia’s population is presently half that of the United States; if projections prove correct, it could fall to one-third by 2030.
Thanks for the link. I comment further on the Radio Free Europe Russia piece here:
http://www.futureatlas.com/blog/index.php/2009/01/03/my-russia-commentary-on-radio-free-europe/
You’re very welcome, Josh.
Russia ‘cannot remain a powerful nation.’ Right, I fear that the Russian leaders will do anything to keep things going. They have a lot of military technology to sell; so, the question for the world is whether Russia can remain a peaceful nation.
Judging from what went on in Georgia last summer, that doesn’t appear likely.
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