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Forecasting expert says IPCC model lacks scientific basis
by Scott Gilbreath ~ January 29th, 2009
Dr J. Scott Armstrong, Professor of Marketing at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and an internationally recognised expert in forecasting methods and models, released a statement outlining eight reasons why the forecasting model used by the International Panel on Climate Change is unreliable.
1. No scientific forecasts of the changes in the Earth’s climate.
2. Improper peer review process.
3. Complexity and uncertainty of climate render expert opinions invalid for forecasting.
4. Forecasts are needed for the effects of climate change.
5. Forecasts are needed of the costs and benefits of alternative actions that might be taken to combat climate change.
6. To justify using a climate forecasting model, one would need to test it against a relevant naïve model.
7. The climate system is stable.
8. Be conservative and avoid the precautionary principle.
Dr Armstrong is author of Long-Range Forecasting, the most frequently cited book on forecasting methods, and co-founder of the Journal of Forecasting, the International Journal of Forecasting, the International Symposium on Forecasting, and forecastingprinciples.com. Among many professional accolades, he was named one of the first six Honorary Fellows of the International Institute of Forecasters in 1996. His complete CV is posted here.
h/t: Andrew Bolt
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January 29th, 2009 at 04:07 PM
Ah, yes. But all this real science will no effect on those who worship in the Church of the Empty Gesture. After all, what matters is the intention and feeling, not mere facts and reality. Saint Gore intends to save the planet, therefore he is right, and we all must do as he says.
January 29th, 2009 at 06:37 PM
[...] Gospel’; Oh dear. Now global warming is “irreversible”; Forecasting expert says IPCC model lacks scientific basis …. [...]